So I was thinking yesterday, you know how when a player is hitting very poorly, they say he's "not hitting his weight." That is, his batting average is lower than his weight. Well I was wondering, what's the opposite of that. Obviously, having a batting average higher than your weight isn't really that great an accomplishment (unless you're Cecil Fielder or Matt Stairs). So then I thought, what about hitting your age? As in, your yearly homer run total is higher than your age.
Of course, this implies you're a power hitter to some extent, you won't find any Jason Tyner types on this list. However, it seems to me that a list of the Age All Stars would represent some of the best players in the league. So, without further ado, here's last year's Age All Stars:
Grady Sizemore, age 24, 28 HR in 2006. What can you say? Grady is a stud and figures to be in the discussion for best AL centerfielder for at least the next 10 years.
Joe Crede, age 28, 30 HR. He finally put it all together in '06 after having been in the majors for several years. His chronic back problems didn't really bother him in '06, unfortunately, this may have been a career year.
Torii Hunter, age 31, 31 HR. He'll likely get paid pretty hansomely for it after the '07 season.
Vernon Wells, age 28, 32 HR. And for this he got a 126 mill. contract.
Vlad Guerrero, age 31, 33 HR. One would think that Vladdy has been an Age All Star pretty much since he broke into the league.
Mark Texeira, age 26, 33 HR. Tex had an even better year in 2005 as a 25 year old socking 43 HR.
Justin Morneau, age 25, 34 HR. This plus 130 RBI wins you the MVP.
Richie Sexson, age 32, 34 HR. No offense to Richie, who had a decent year in 2006, but he drags this list down.
Alex Rodriguez, age 31, 35 HR. Still an age All Star in a down year for him.
Paul Konerko, age 31, 35 HR. Well worth his new contract.
Manny Ramirez, age 34, 35 HR. Barely makes the list, due to a nagging knee injury that limited him in September.
Nick Swisher, age 26, 35 HR. A big jump up in power for Swish, who seems to have come into his own in 2006.
Jason Giambi, age 36, 37 HR. The Giambino isn't young, but he can still hit it out of the ballpark.
Troy Glaus, age 30, 38 HR. A bit of an under the radar member of the Age All Stars.
Frank Thomas, age38, 39 HR. The first time the Big Hurt has been a Age All Star in quite some time.
Travis Hafner, age 29, 42 HR. Pronk had a monster year, but is older than you might think.
Jim Thome, age 36, 42 HR. Thome just keeps on putting up seasons like this.
Jermaine Dye, age 33, 44 HR. Perhaps the most surprising member of the 2006 Age All Stars. Dye actually just missed out in 2005 (31 HR at age 32).
David Ortiz, age 31, 54 HR. Unsurprisingly, Big Papi tops our list.
There you have it, 19 guys managed to "Hit their age" in 2006. Preparing this raised a few interesting questions. Perhaps I'll dig into this more from a historical perspective. A step I could take later on down the road would be to compile a list of the number of seasons a player has been an Age All Star. Another further step I might take is to calculate the number of HR in excess of one's age a player hits. This would give you a cummulative total for their career, in seasons where they hit their age. This might be a decent way to measure peak value, or at least peak power. If I did come up with a list of career HRs in excess of age, I bet ARod would come out the leader (or maybe Griffey or that Ruth guy).
Tuesday, August 28
Sunday, August 26
On the Juice?: Adrian Beltre
In the hopes of maybe becoming Mr. No One in Particular over at USS Mariner.com, the next subject of our OTJ series will be one Mr. Adrian Beltre.
In the interests of full disclosure, Adrian has been my third baseman the last 2 seasons in my AL keeper league. In that time I've had a love-hate relationship with him. When I drafted him, I already had Hank Blalock at third, and Beltre was the best available talent on the board. Throughout the season I was continually tempted to drop him, before realizing that Hank was even worse, and trading him (Hank). I reluctantly ended up holding onto Beltre all season, and he rewarded me by probably being the MVP of the fantasy finals, hitting 6 HR, to go along with 16 RBI and 18 runs scored during the final two weeks of the season. Since then, I've pretty much loved him, although I did make a serious push to replace him with Alex Gordon this year at draft time.
As pretty much anyone who follows baseball knows, Adrian Beltre put up one of the greatest contract drives in history. In 2004 as a 25 year old third baseman of the LA Dodgers, Beltre hit .334 with 48 HR and 121 RBI. Besides that season, his career high in average, in any season, including subsequent ones, is .290. His career high is HR is 25. His career high in RBI is 89. So he exceeded his career highs by .044 in average, 23 (!) in HR, and 32 in RBI.
Going back in time, Adrian Beltre was born April 7th, 1979. He's younger than most people think, due in part to the fact he was signed illegally as a 15 year old. He progressed through the minors pretty quickly, appearing in the majors at the age of 19. His minor league high in HR was 26 in 123 games at Vero Beach (A+) as a 17 year old.
Discounting his rookie season as a 19 year old, Beltre has been pretty much the same player his entire career in the majors, besides his obscene 2004 season. Here are his HR totals for every season from 1999, his first full time season, to 2007: 15, 20, 13, 21, 23, 48, 19, 25, 20 (so far). Now here are his batting averages for each of those seasons: .275, .290, .265, .257, .240, .334, .255, .268, .283 (so far). So he's about a .270, 20 HR hitter. That's a decent player, especially when you play gold glove caliber defense, which he does.
What to make of 2004? As anyone who has followed Beltre knows, he's an extremely streaky hitter. Hell, just look what he did the last 2 weeks of 2006 (6 HR, 16 RBI). Maybe he just got on a roll all season. However all that being said, 2004 is a huge outlier in an otherwise remarkably consistent career. His career high in HR in non-2004 seasons was 25. He hit nearly twice that many in 2004. As a result he got a 5 year, 64 million dollar deal. The evidence is pretty damning. One thing to look at is his batting average on balls in play. This can help us see how fluky a season Beltre had. His BABIP in 2004 was .335, which is pretty high. That helps explain the .334 average. But what about all the power?
A good way to measure power, of course, is slugging percentage. It's a better way to figure out how much of an outlier 2004 really was. Maybe Beltre just was lucky in that a lot of warning track shots ended up over the fence in 2004. Well, here again the evidence is damning. His slugging percentage in 2004 was an obscene .629. His career high besides that season is .493 (this season). Anyway you slice it, he either had one of the flukiest seasons in history, or he was juicing.
In the end, steroids can't entirely describe what happened to Adrian Beltre in 2004. He did his 44 points higher than in any other season of his career. But, however magical 2004 was for Adrian, and despite his denials, he probably had some chemical help in 2004.
Verdict: (Probably) Guilty
In the interests of full disclosure, Adrian has been my third baseman the last 2 seasons in my AL keeper league. In that time I've had a love-hate relationship with him. When I drafted him, I already had Hank Blalock at third, and Beltre was the best available talent on the board. Throughout the season I was continually tempted to drop him, before realizing that Hank was even worse, and trading him (Hank). I reluctantly ended up holding onto Beltre all season, and he rewarded me by probably being the MVP of the fantasy finals, hitting 6 HR, to go along with 16 RBI and 18 runs scored during the final two weeks of the season. Since then, I've pretty much loved him, although I did make a serious push to replace him with Alex Gordon this year at draft time.
As pretty much anyone who follows baseball knows, Adrian Beltre put up one of the greatest contract drives in history. In 2004 as a 25 year old third baseman of the LA Dodgers, Beltre hit .334 with 48 HR and 121 RBI. Besides that season, his career high in average, in any season, including subsequent ones, is .290. His career high is HR is 25. His career high in RBI is 89. So he exceeded his career highs by .044 in average, 23 (!) in HR, and 32 in RBI.
Going back in time, Adrian Beltre was born April 7th, 1979. He's younger than most people think, due in part to the fact he was signed illegally as a 15 year old. He progressed through the minors pretty quickly, appearing in the majors at the age of 19. His minor league high in HR was 26 in 123 games at Vero Beach (A+) as a 17 year old.
Discounting his rookie season as a 19 year old, Beltre has been pretty much the same player his entire career in the majors, besides his obscene 2004 season. Here are his HR totals for every season from 1999, his first full time season, to 2007: 15, 20, 13, 21, 23, 48, 19, 25, 20 (so far). Now here are his batting averages for each of those seasons: .275, .290, .265, .257, .240, .334, .255, .268, .283 (so far). So he's about a .270, 20 HR hitter. That's a decent player, especially when you play gold glove caliber defense, which he does.
What to make of 2004? As anyone who has followed Beltre knows, he's an extremely streaky hitter. Hell, just look what he did the last 2 weeks of 2006 (6 HR, 16 RBI). Maybe he just got on a roll all season. However all that being said, 2004 is a huge outlier in an otherwise remarkably consistent career. His career high in HR in non-2004 seasons was 25. He hit nearly twice that many in 2004. As a result he got a 5 year, 64 million dollar deal. The evidence is pretty damning. One thing to look at is his batting average on balls in play. This can help us see how fluky a season Beltre had. His BABIP in 2004 was .335, which is pretty high. That helps explain the .334 average. But what about all the power?
A good way to measure power, of course, is slugging percentage. It's a better way to figure out how much of an outlier 2004 really was. Maybe Beltre just was lucky in that a lot of warning track shots ended up over the fence in 2004. Well, here again the evidence is damning. His slugging percentage in 2004 was an obscene .629. His career high besides that season is .493 (this season). Anyway you slice it, he either had one of the flukiest seasons in history, or he was juicing.
In the end, steroids can't entirely describe what happened to Adrian Beltre in 2004. He did his 44 points higher than in any other season of his career. But, however magical 2004 was for Adrian, and despite his denials, he probably had some chemical help in 2004.
Verdict: (Probably) Guilty
Wednesday, August 22
Somewhere Jayson Stark springs into action...
So as you may or may not have seen, the Texas Rangers pretty much made the Baltimore Orioles their bitches today. They absolutely pummeled the quartet of Daniel Cabrera, Brian Burres, Rob Bell and Paul Shuey for a grand total of THIRTY runs.I was curious if that was a major league record. I went over to Baseball-Reference to use the play index, and it came up with no games since 1957 where a team scored more than 29 runs. What about earlier? Was Baseball Reference's Play Index cock-blocking me because it wanted me to pay for a subscription?
So I headed over to Wikipedia. It was the bottom of the ninth, but the Rangers were done (barring the rare 27 run inning). Even though the game had even finished, someone had ALREADY updated the entry to say that the Rangers set the modern day record for runs scored tonight.
Somewhere in the greater Philadelphia area the red phone is ringing in the Stark household. Tim Kurkjian is orgasmic on the other end of the line, and tomorrow's inevitable useless info column is being banged out on the computer...
Monday, August 20
Minor Internet fame
I got mentioned over at FJM.com. I am that Matthew! Seriously, FireJoeMorgan.com is great, you should read it daily.
Sunday, August 19
Random
Here's a collection of random thoughts I have while watching the Tigers/Yankees game on MLB.tv. I'd like to that MLB for not giving me the option to choose the home or away TV feed. I love watching the YES Network feed. Especially the insufferable Michael Kay. Anyway, here's some random thoughts:
- Does anyone actually have an "SAP button?" I swear, I've never seen this mythical button. Do they make you prove you speak Spanish when you buy the TV in order to issue you one with an SAP button?
- Michael Kay informs us that Curtis Granderson and Grady Sizemore "strike out too much to be a leadoff hitter." You're right, Granderson (.347 OBP) and Sizemore (.382 OBP!) should try to be more like Johnny Damon (.353 OBP) or Melky Cabrera (.351 OBP).
- What road starts are to Ervin Santana, the first inning is to Jeremy Bonderman. He's got a 12+ ERA in the first inning! So far it looks like he's well on his way to upping that number...
- Michael Kay talks about Moneyball semi-intelligently. Astounding. Except for the obligatory "Billy Beane likes to draft college guys" talk.
- Does this blog consist of disseminating the accounts and descriptions of the game? Will I have the YES Network breathing down my neck?
- Oh my goodness gracious, of all the dramatic things I have ever seen! Yogi Berra is sitting in George Steinbrenner's box!
- The YES crew are talking about Curtis Granderson's 19 triples and are attributing it to Comerica Park. Too bad only 6 of the 19 triples were hit there. Don't let the fact stand in the way of your argument guys...
- How you can tell an idiot fan: If they boo an intentional walk. Granted there are exceptions (like Barry Bonds), but a real fan of the game will understand the strategy of the game and acknowledge the strategic usage of the intentional walk.
- Apparently, Joe Torre has two ways he can make relief pitchers cry. The first way is well known, run them out there mercilessly until their arm hurts. The second way was just reveal in an anecdote by Michael Kay. First you don't use a pitcher for 2 weeks because you don't trust them (Edwar Ramirez), then you run them out there and let them get pounded because their rusty (Ramirez again), then you send them down to the minors. Voila! tears. Man Torre is shaky with his bullpen usage...
- Does anyone actually have an "SAP button?" I swear, I've never seen this mythical button. Do they make you prove you speak Spanish when you buy the TV in order to issue you one with an SAP button?
- Michael Kay informs us that Curtis Granderson and Grady Sizemore "strike out too much to be a leadoff hitter." You're right, Granderson (.347 OBP) and Sizemore (.382 OBP!) should try to be more like Johnny Damon (.353 OBP) or Melky Cabrera (.351 OBP).
- What road starts are to Ervin Santana, the first inning is to Jeremy Bonderman. He's got a 12+ ERA in the first inning! So far it looks like he's well on his way to upping that number...
- Michael Kay talks about Moneyball semi-intelligently. Astounding. Except for the obligatory "Billy Beane likes to draft college guys" talk.
- Does this blog consist of disseminating the accounts and descriptions of the game? Will I have the YES Network breathing down my neck?
- Oh my goodness gracious, of all the dramatic things I have ever seen! Yogi Berra is sitting in George Steinbrenner's box!
- The YES crew are talking about Curtis Granderson's 19 triples and are attributing it to Comerica Park. Too bad only 6 of the 19 triples were hit there. Don't let the fact stand in the way of your argument guys...
- How you can tell an idiot fan: If they boo an intentional walk. Granted there are exceptions (like Barry Bonds), but a real fan of the game will understand the strategy of the game and acknowledge the strategic usage of the intentional walk.
- Apparently, Joe Torre has two ways he can make relief pitchers cry. The first way is well known, run them out there mercilessly until their arm hurts. The second way was just reveal in an anecdote by Michael Kay. First you don't use a pitcher for 2 weeks because you don't trust them (Edwar Ramirez), then you run them out there and let them get pounded because their rusty (Ramirez again), then you send them down to the minors. Voila! tears. Man Torre is shaky with his bullpen usage...
Saturday, August 18
ARod a Sock
I think ARod will be a Red Sock next season. We all know he's going to opt out of his deal. The NY papers are doing their damnedest to drive him out of town with all the StrayRod and "he's not clutch" talk.
After that, I don't see how Boston doesn't make a huge push to sign him. Luchino covets him. Schilling (13 mill), Lowell (9 mill), and Matt Clement (9.5 mill) are all coming off the books, that's 31.5 mill right there. With Lester and Bucholtz, they could easily let Schilling and (obviously) Clement walk. ARod would replace Lowell. You know they'd love to stick it to the Yankees. They could move Lugo to third if ARod wanted to play short. The ballpark dimensions are attractive to a guy with thoughts of becoming the HR king.
After that, I don't see how Boston doesn't make a huge push to sign him. Luchino covets him. Schilling (13 mill), Lowell (9 mill), and Matt Clement (9.5 mill) are all coming off the books, that's 31.5 mill right there. With Lester and Bucholtz, they could easily let Schilling and (obviously) Clement walk. ARod would replace Lowell. You know they'd love to stick it to the Yankees. They could move Lugo to third if ARod wanted to play short. The ballpark dimensions are attractive to a guy with thoughts of becoming the HR king.
Wednesday, August 15
On the Juice?: Carlos Guillen
Trust me, this blog isn't going to become the steroid report, I've just been lacking for inspiration lately, and the OTJ series has been fun to research. Based on a suggestion, today's topic is Carlos Guillen.
Now I'll admit, given that Carlos plies his trade as the shortstop for my favorite team, I don't want to come to the conclusion he's juicing. Nevertheless, let's delve into the past (powered, as always by The Baseball Cube, an invaluable site for minor league stats) and see what we find.
Despite enjoying the reputation these past few years as possibly the most underrated player in baseball, I think most people are farily well aware of Carlos' exploits the last few years with the Tigers. In his 4 seasons as a Tiger, he's been about a .320 hitter, while averaging about 20 HR a season. Obviously, that's damned good for a shortstop. As an aside, his days at shortstop appear to be numbered, as Carlos has been piling up the errors these last few years. He's likely to shift over to first base, perhaps as soon as next season. (After the Tigers sign ARod to play short this offseason, or at least I hope in my wildest dreams).
In looking at Guillen's career path, I think 2 words can be used to summarize why it took Guillen so long (until he was 28, and in his first season as a Tiger) to break out. Those two words: Injuries & Piniella. You could probably add a third word, ARod.
Guillen started his pro career in the Astros organization. He'd just reach AAA as a 21 year old in 1998 when he was traded to Seattle as part of a deal for Randy Johnson. He was oft injured in 1995 and 1996, so the injury issues had dogged him even from a young age.
So in 1998, Guillen was a 21 year old AAA shortstop who Baseball Prospectus would describe in their 1999 edition by saying "Should be an All Star some day." Obviously, despite the injuries, we were talking about a big time prospect. But here's where Sweet Lou and ARod started to mess up Carlos' game.
Don't know if you're aware of this, but ARod is a pretty good player. He was also blocking Carlos' path to the bigs (especially with Bret Boone providing well above average production at second base). So Carlos spent a lost season in the minors in 1999. In 2000, he became a part time third baseman, logging 288 at bats. He was also banged up part of the year, which helped to hold down his at bats. His production was decent (.257 average, 7 HR) but nothing to write home about. Part of the reason for his relatively sparse use was that Lou Piniella never really like Carlos, a fact mentioned by Baseball Prospectus in their 2002 edition.
2001 saw Carlos take over at short full time, 2 years after he probably should've thanks to ARod (who left for Texas in the offseason). His production that year certainly didn't portend greatness, .259 average, 5 HR in 140 games. But hold on. After the season it was revealed that he played the whole season with Tuberculosis. That'll sap your power.
2002 was a better season, but still not great (.261, 9 HR in 134 games) with an unpleasant DUI thrown into the mix. While he wasn't injured that season, obviously Lou wasn't too crazy about him, judging by the game total. 2003 saw more incremental progress, (.276, with 7 HR in 109 games). He also spent some time on the DL with an "inflamed pelvis."
Assessing Carlos' career after the 2003 season (age 27 season) we find an injury prone player who had his career path blocked for 2 seasons by one of the all time greats, and then for another 3 seasons by a manager who didn't particularly care for him (as well as more injuries, especially the tuberculosis). It should also be noted that Safeco Field in Seattle is not exactly known as a hitter park (granted, neither is Comerica in Detroit).
Prior to the 2004 season he was traded to Detroit for Ramon Santiago and Juan Gonzalez (not that one). This after he almost went to Cleveland for Omar Vizquel (Vizquel failed a physical, and the M's backed out of the deal).
So what happened in 2004? Guillen enjoyed his most healthy season, perhaps in his career (at least until he broke his leg in September). He easily set a career high in at bats, even though he missed the last month of the season. Perhaps he's a player who needs to be in their every day in order to succeed. He also hit 5th in the order for much of the season, the first time he saw a significant number of at bats in an RBI slot. Perhaps he changed his approach at the plate somewhat. He ended up hitting .318 with 20 HR in 136 games.
Since then, Carlos has maintained approximately that level of production. He's also dealt with injury (he only appeared in 87 games in 2005 due to nagging knee problems) along the way. When I assess Guillen career, I see a late bloomer. However, as previously stated, injuries and being denied the opportunity at the big league level can be pointed to as the primary culprits. Baseball Prospecuts called him a future All Star after his age 22 season. It wasn't his fault that he didn't exceed 500 at bats until his age 28 season.
Verdict: Not Guilty
Now I'll admit, given that Carlos plies his trade as the shortstop for my favorite team, I don't want to come to the conclusion he's juicing. Nevertheless, let's delve into the past (powered, as always by The Baseball Cube, an invaluable site for minor league stats) and see what we find.
Despite enjoying the reputation these past few years as possibly the most underrated player in baseball, I think most people are farily well aware of Carlos' exploits the last few years with the Tigers. In his 4 seasons as a Tiger, he's been about a .320 hitter, while averaging about 20 HR a season. Obviously, that's damned good for a shortstop. As an aside, his days at shortstop appear to be numbered, as Carlos has been piling up the errors these last few years. He's likely to shift over to first base, perhaps as soon as next season. (After the Tigers sign ARod to play short this offseason, or at least I hope in my wildest dreams).
In looking at Guillen's career path, I think 2 words can be used to summarize why it took Guillen so long (until he was 28, and in his first season as a Tiger) to break out. Those two words: Injuries & Piniella. You could probably add a third word, ARod.
Guillen started his pro career in the Astros organization. He'd just reach AAA as a 21 year old in 1998 when he was traded to Seattle as part of a deal for Randy Johnson. He was oft injured in 1995 and 1996, so the injury issues had dogged him even from a young age.
So in 1998, Guillen was a 21 year old AAA shortstop who Baseball Prospectus would describe in their 1999 edition by saying "Should be an All Star some day." Obviously, despite the injuries, we were talking about a big time prospect. But here's where Sweet Lou and ARod started to mess up Carlos' game.
Don't know if you're aware of this, but ARod is a pretty good player. He was also blocking Carlos' path to the bigs (especially with Bret Boone providing well above average production at second base). So Carlos spent a lost season in the minors in 1999. In 2000, he became a part time third baseman, logging 288 at bats. He was also banged up part of the year, which helped to hold down his at bats. His production was decent (.257 average, 7 HR) but nothing to write home about. Part of the reason for his relatively sparse use was that Lou Piniella never really like Carlos, a fact mentioned by Baseball Prospectus in their 2002 edition.
2001 saw Carlos take over at short full time, 2 years after he probably should've thanks to ARod (who left for Texas in the offseason). His production that year certainly didn't portend greatness, .259 average, 5 HR in 140 games. But hold on. After the season it was revealed that he played the whole season with Tuberculosis. That'll sap your power.
2002 was a better season, but still not great (.261, 9 HR in 134 games) with an unpleasant DUI thrown into the mix. While he wasn't injured that season, obviously Lou wasn't too crazy about him, judging by the game total. 2003 saw more incremental progress, (.276, with 7 HR in 109 games). He also spent some time on the DL with an "inflamed pelvis."
Assessing Carlos' career after the 2003 season (age 27 season) we find an injury prone player who had his career path blocked for 2 seasons by one of the all time greats, and then for another 3 seasons by a manager who didn't particularly care for him (as well as more injuries, especially the tuberculosis). It should also be noted that Safeco Field in Seattle is not exactly known as a hitter park (granted, neither is Comerica in Detroit).
Prior to the 2004 season he was traded to Detroit for Ramon Santiago and Juan Gonzalez (not that one). This after he almost went to Cleveland for Omar Vizquel (Vizquel failed a physical, and the M's backed out of the deal).
So what happened in 2004? Guillen enjoyed his most healthy season, perhaps in his career (at least until he broke his leg in September). He easily set a career high in at bats, even though he missed the last month of the season. Perhaps he's a player who needs to be in their every day in order to succeed. He also hit 5th in the order for much of the season, the first time he saw a significant number of at bats in an RBI slot. Perhaps he changed his approach at the plate somewhat. He ended up hitting .318 with 20 HR in 136 games.
Since then, Carlos has maintained approximately that level of production. He's also dealt with injury (he only appeared in 87 games in 2005 due to nagging knee problems) along the way. When I assess Guillen career, I see a late bloomer. However, as previously stated, injuries and being denied the opportunity at the big league level can be pointed to as the primary culprits. Baseball Prospecuts called him a future All Star after his age 22 season. It wasn't his fault that he didn't exceed 500 at bats until his age 28 season.
Verdict: Not Guilty
Saturday, August 11
Sunday, August 5
On the Juice?: Melvin Mora
Now for the second part of our ongoing series trying to determine players who might've used the juice to make it to the majors.
Given his bizarre career path Mora is a very good guy to look at and ask, did he use the juice? He was signed by the Houston Astros and began his minor league career as a 20 year old in 1992. As you can see by his career path, he toiled for a long time in the minors. He was the quintessential light hitting infielder in the minors. His minor league season high in home runs was 8.
He made it to AAA by late 1995 and there he pretty much stalled. After SIX years as an Astro minor leaguer he was granted free agent status and signed with the Taiwan Mercury in 1998. Not exactly a guy on the fast track to All Star status.
Then the Mets came calling. He came back from Taiwan and in 1999 made his major league debut, mostly as a defensive replacement, appearing in 66 games but only logging 31 at bats. In 2000 he played pretty regularly for the Mets, replacing the offensive black hole that was Rey Ordonez. He hit a surprising 6 HR in the 79 games he played for the Mets and was shipped off mid-season to the Orioles as part of a package for Mike Bordick. He played in 128 games all over the field for the Orioles in 2001 and hit 7 HR. Also, in July 2001, his wife gave birth to quintuplets, three girls and two boys.
Let's stop and take stock of Melvin Mora at the end of 2001. He was turning 30 in February of 2002. He'd bounced around the minors for 8 years before appearing in the majors. His family had just expanded from 2 to 7 people. His yearly HR totals as a professional had gone as follows: 0, 2, 8, 3, 8, 2, 3, 8, 8, 7. He'd made $270,000 in 2001 and was going to make $350,000 in 2002. Did he look at those babies and decide to dabble in PEDs, hoping to increase his production and therefore, his pay? Yeah, I think he probably did. Light hitting journeyman infielders don't suddenly becomes stars when they turn 30.
In 2002 Mora hit 19 HR with a paltry .233 average. Seems like a guy who'd just packed on some muscle and was swinging from his heels. It got him a raise to 1.75 mil though. 2003 was an injury shortened year, he only played in 96 games, but Mora still hit 15 HR. His batting average jumped up to .317. Seems like he adjusted to the newfound strength (Obviously, this is all conjecture).
It all came together in 2004. Mora was no longer used as a utility guy, settling in at third base. He hit .340 that season, along with 27 (!) HR. He followed that up with 27 more in 2005, 16 in 2006, and 12 so far this year.
As I said, this is all conjecture. Judging by his huge jumps up in batting average, he clearly figured something out and became a much better hitter. Maybe the birth of those kids focused him on maximizing him potential. He's now made 20 mill in his career so his family is set. But did part of that newfound focus include talking to his teammate Brady Anderson (a much suspected user, given his random 50 HR season) about a way to gain some strength? We can't know for sure, but the track record is pretty damning. Again, here's the career HR totals, including after his explosion: 0, 2, 8, 3, 8, 2, 3, 8, 8, 7, 19, 15, 27, 27, 16, 12 (so far). Something seems fishy to me, how about you?
Verdict: Probably Guilty
Given his bizarre career path Mora is a very good guy to look at and ask, did he use the juice? He was signed by the Houston Astros and began his minor league career as a 20 year old in 1992. As you can see by his career path, he toiled for a long time in the minors. He was the quintessential light hitting infielder in the minors. His minor league season high in home runs was 8.
He made it to AAA by late 1995 and there he pretty much stalled. After SIX years as an Astro minor leaguer he was granted free agent status and signed with the Taiwan Mercury in 1998. Not exactly a guy on the fast track to All Star status.
Then the Mets came calling. He came back from Taiwan and in 1999 made his major league debut, mostly as a defensive replacement, appearing in 66 games but only logging 31 at bats. In 2000 he played pretty regularly for the Mets, replacing the offensive black hole that was Rey Ordonez. He hit a surprising 6 HR in the 79 games he played for the Mets and was shipped off mid-season to the Orioles as part of a package for Mike Bordick. He played in 128 games all over the field for the Orioles in 2001 and hit 7 HR. Also, in July 2001, his wife gave birth to quintuplets, three girls and two boys.
Let's stop and take stock of Melvin Mora at the end of 2001. He was turning 30 in February of 2002. He'd bounced around the minors for 8 years before appearing in the majors. His family had just expanded from 2 to 7 people. His yearly HR totals as a professional had gone as follows: 0, 2, 8, 3, 8, 2, 3, 8, 8, 7. He'd made $270,000 in 2001 and was going to make $350,000 in 2002. Did he look at those babies and decide to dabble in PEDs, hoping to increase his production and therefore, his pay? Yeah, I think he probably did. Light hitting journeyman infielders don't suddenly becomes stars when they turn 30.
In 2002 Mora hit 19 HR with a paltry .233 average. Seems like a guy who'd just packed on some muscle and was swinging from his heels. It got him a raise to 1.75 mil though. 2003 was an injury shortened year, he only played in 96 games, but Mora still hit 15 HR. His batting average jumped up to .317. Seems like he adjusted to the newfound strength (Obviously, this is all conjecture).
It all came together in 2004. Mora was no longer used as a utility guy, settling in at third base. He hit .340 that season, along with 27 (!) HR. He followed that up with 27 more in 2005, 16 in 2006, and 12 so far this year.
As I said, this is all conjecture. Judging by his huge jumps up in batting average, he clearly figured something out and became a much better hitter. Maybe the birth of those kids focused him on maximizing him potential. He's now made 20 mill in his career so his family is set. But did part of that newfound focus include talking to his teammate Brady Anderson (a much suspected user, given his random 50 HR season) about a way to gain some strength? We can't know for sure, but the track record is pretty damning. Again, here's the career HR totals, including after his explosion: 0, 2, 8, 3, 8, 2, 3, 8, 8, 7, 19, 15, 27, 27, 16, 12 (so far). Something seems fishy to me, how about you?
Verdict: Probably Guilty
Friday, August 3
Deconstructing the famous "bad trade"
I speak of course of the Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz trade of 1987. I suppose I could just link to an excellent article done by the Hardball Times, but what's the point of having a blog if I just put up a bunch of links.
Yes it's fun to snicker at the Tigers for trading John Smoltz, future hall of famer, for the immortal Doyle Alexander but was this really a bad deal for the Tigers? In hindsight, no doubt the Tigers would rather have Smoltz's hall of fame career than a few years of Alexander. However, this trade must be viewed through the prism of the 1987 pennant race.
Doyle Alexander made 11 starts for the Tigers in 1987. He went 9-0 with 3 shutouts! His first no decision he went 6 innings and gave up 4 runs in a game the Tigers eventually won. His other no decision he went 10 2/3 (!) innings and gave up 2 runs (1 earned). The Tigers also won this game.
The 1987 AL East pennant drive is legendary, as the Blue Jays collapsed in the last week and the Tigers took the division by 2 games. How might they have fared if they weren't 11-0 in games started by Alexander?
Meanwhile John Smoltz was a 20 year old 22nd round draft pick. His first season in A+ ball he'd compiled a 3.68 ERA while striking out 47 in 96 innings. He was midway through his second season when traded. At that time he had a 4-10 record in AA, to go along with a 5.68 ERA. Obviously, he was better than those numbers, but there was still much reason to doubt he'd ever be a major league talent.
Doyle Alexander did poorly in the playoffs in 1987, with a 10.00 ERA in two losses. However this doesn't change the fact that the Tigers probably never would've gotten there without him. He was an All Star in 1988 and retired after the 1989 season. Smoltz of course is still playing, and will have an Atlanta Braves cap on his Hall of Fame plaque.
Nevertheless, this was a win-win trade. The Tigers got the short term benefit of a playoff berth, while the Braves got a player who would help them down the road. I demand this trade stop being used as the definitive "bad trade." Haven't you people ever heard of Larry Andersen for Jeff Bagwell or Derek Lowe & Jason Varitek for Heathcliffe Slocumbe?
Yes it's fun to snicker at the Tigers for trading John Smoltz, future hall of famer, for the immortal Doyle Alexander but was this really a bad deal for the Tigers? In hindsight, no doubt the Tigers would rather have Smoltz's hall of fame career than a few years of Alexander. However, this trade must be viewed through the prism of the 1987 pennant race.
Doyle Alexander made 11 starts for the Tigers in 1987. He went 9-0 with 3 shutouts! His first no decision he went 6 innings and gave up 4 runs in a game the Tigers eventually won. His other no decision he went 10 2/3 (!) innings and gave up 2 runs (1 earned). The Tigers also won this game.
The 1987 AL East pennant drive is legendary, as the Blue Jays collapsed in the last week and the Tigers took the division by 2 games. How might they have fared if they weren't 11-0 in games started by Alexander?
Meanwhile John Smoltz was a 20 year old 22nd round draft pick. His first season in A+ ball he'd compiled a 3.68 ERA while striking out 47 in 96 innings. He was midway through his second season when traded. At that time he had a 4-10 record in AA, to go along with a 5.68 ERA. Obviously, he was better than those numbers, but there was still much reason to doubt he'd ever be a major league talent.
Doyle Alexander did poorly in the playoffs in 1987, with a 10.00 ERA in two losses. However this doesn't change the fact that the Tigers probably never would've gotten there without him. He was an All Star in 1988 and retired after the 1989 season. Smoltz of course is still playing, and will have an Atlanta Braves cap on his Hall of Fame plaque.
Nevertheless, this was a win-win trade. The Tigers got the short term benefit of a playoff berth, while the Braves got a player who would help them down the road. I demand this trade stop being used as the definitive "bad trade." Haven't you people ever heard of Larry Andersen for Jeff Bagwell or Derek Lowe & Jason Varitek for Heathcliffe Slocumbe?
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