On the Juice?: Adrian Beltre

In the hopes of maybe becoming Mr. No One in Particular over at USS Mariner.com, the next subject of our OTJ series will be one Mr. Adrian Beltre.


In the interests of full disclosure, Adrian has been my third baseman the last 2 seasons in my AL keeper league. In that time I've had a love-hate relationship with him. When I drafted him, I already had Hank Blalock at third, and Beltre was the best available talent on the board. Throughout the season I was continually tempted to drop him, before realizing that Hank was even worse, and trading him (Hank). I reluctantly ended up holding onto Beltre all season, and he rewarded me by probably being the MVP of the fantasy finals, hitting 6 HR, to go along with 16 RBI and 18 runs scored during the final two weeks of the season. Since then, I've pretty much loved him, although I did make a serious push to replace him with Alex Gordon this year at draft time.

As pretty much anyone who follows baseball knows, Adrian Beltre put up one of the greatest contract drives in history. In 2004 as a 25 year old third baseman of the LA Dodgers, Beltre hit .334 with 48 HR and 121 RBI. Besides that season, his career high in average, in any season, including subsequent ones, is .290. His career high is HR is 25. His career high in RBI is 89. So he exceeded his career highs by .044 in average, 23 (!) in HR, and 32 in RBI.

Going back in time, Adrian Beltre was born April 7th, 1979. He's younger than most people think, due in part to the fact he was signed illegally as a 15 year old. He progressed through the minors pretty quickly, appearing in the majors at the age of 19. His minor league high in HR was 26 in 123 games at Vero Beach (A+) as a 17 year old.

Discounting his rookie season as a 19 year old, Beltre has been pretty much the same player his entire career in the majors, besides his obscene 2004 season. Here are his HR totals for every season from 1999, his first full time season, to 2007: 15, 20, 13, 21, 23, 48, 19, 25, 20 (so far). Now here are his batting averages for each of those seasons: .275, .290, .265, .257, .240, .334, .255, .268, .283 (so far). So he's about a .270, 20 HR hitter. That's a decent player, especially when you play gold glove caliber defense, which he does.

What to make of 2004? As anyone who has followed Beltre knows, he's an extremely streaky hitter. Hell, just look what he did the last 2 weeks of 2006 (6 HR, 16 RBI). Maybe he just got on a roll all season. However all that being said, 2004 is a huge outlier in an otherwise remarkably consistent career. His career high in HR in non-2004 seasons was 25. He hit nearly twice that many in 2004. As a result he got a 5 year, 64 million dollar deal. The evidence is pretty damning. One thing to look at is his batting average on balls in play. This can help us see how fluky a season Beltre had. His BABIP in 2004 was .335, which is pretty high. That helps explain the .334 average. But what about all the power?

A good way to measure power, of course, is slugging percentage. It's a better way to figure out how much of an outlier 2004 really was. Maybe Beltre just was lucky in that a lot of warning track shots ended up over the fence in 2004. Well, here again the evidence is damning. His slugging percentage in 2004 was an obscene .629. His career high besides that season is .493 (this season). Anyway you slice it, he either had one of the flukiest seasons in history, or he was juicing.

In the end, steroids can't entirely describe what happened to Adrian Beltre in 2004. He did his 44 points higher than in any other season of his career. But, however magical 2004 was for Adrian, and despite his denials, he probably had some chemical help in 2004.

Verdict: (Probably) Guilty

On the Juice?: Carlos Guillen

Trust me, this blog isn't going to become the steroid report, I've just been lacking for inspiration lately, and the OTJ series has been fun to research. Based on a suggestion, today's topic is Carlos Guillen.



Now I'll admit, given that Carlos plies his trade as the shortstop for my favorite team, I don't want to come to the conclusion he's juicing. Nevertheless, let's delve into the past (powered, as always by The Baseball Cube, an invaluable site for minor league stats) and see what we find.

Despite enjoying the reputation these past few years as possibly the most underrated player in baseball, I think most people are farily well aware of Carlos' exploits the last few years with the Tigers. In his 4 seasons as a Tiger, he's been about a .320 hitter, while averaging about 20 HR a season. Obviously, that's damned good for a shortstop. As an aside, his days at shortstop appear to be numbered, as Carlos has been piling up the errors these last few years. He's likely to shift over to first base, perhaps as soon as next season. (After the Tigers sign ARod to play short this offseason, or at least I hope in my wildest dreams).

In looking at Guillen's career path, I think 2 words can be used to summarize why it took Guillen so long (until he was 28, and in his first season as a Tiger) to break out. Those two words: Injuries & Piniella. You could probably add a third word, ARod.

Guillen started his pro career in the Astros organization. He'd just reach AAA as a 21 year old in 1998 when he was traded to Seattle as part of a deal for Randy Johnson. He was oft injured in 1995 and 1996, so the injury issues had dogged him even from a young age.

So in 1998, Guillen was a 21 year old AAA shortstop who Baseball Prospectus would describe in their 1999 edition by saying "Should be an All Star some day." Obviously, despite the injuries, we were talking about a big time prospect. But here's where Sweet Lou and ARod started to mess up Carlos' game.

Don't know if you're aware of this, but ARod is a pretty good player. He was also blocking Carlos' path to the bigs (especially with Bret Boone providing well above average production at second base). So Carlos spent a lost season in the minors in 1999. In 2000, he became a part time third baseman, logging 288 at bats. He was also banged up part of the year, which helped to hold down his at bats. His production was decent (.257 average, 7 HR) but nothing to write home about. Part of the reason for his relatively sparse use was that Lou Piniella never really like Carlos, a fact mentioned by Baseball Prospectus in their 2002 edition.

2001 saw Carlos take over at short full time, 2 years after he probably should've thanks to ARod (who left for Texas in the offseason). His production that year certainly didn't portend greatness, .259 average, 5 HR in 140 games. But hold on. After the season it was revealed that he played the whole season with Tuberculosis. That'll sap your power.

2002 was a better season, but still not great (.261, 9 HR in 134 games) with an unpleasant DUI thrown into the mix. While he wasn't injured that season, obviously Lou wasn't too crazy about him, judging by the game total. 2003 saw more incremental progress, (.276, with 7 HR in 109 games). He also spent some time on the DL with an "inflamed pelvis."

Assessing Carlos' career after the 2003 season (age 27 season) we find an injury prone player who had his career path blocked for 2 seasons by one of the all time greats, and then for another 3 seasons by a manager who didn't particularly care for him (as well as more injuries, especially the tuberculosis). It should also be noted that Safeco Field in Seattle is not exactly known as a hitter park (granted, neither is Comerica in Detroit).

Prior to the 2004 season he was traded to Detroit for Ramon Santiago and Juan Gonzalez (not that one). This after he almost went to Cleveland for Omar Vizquel (Vizquel failed a physical, and the M's backed out of the deal).

So what happened in 2004? Guillen enjoyed his most healthy season, perhaps in his career (at least until he broke his leg in September). He easily set a career high in at bats, even though he missed the last month of the season. Perhaps he's a player who needs to be in their every day in order to succeed. He also hit 5th in the order for much of the season, the first time he saw a significant number of at bats in an RBI slot. Perhaps he changed his approach at the plate somewhat. He ended up hitting .318 with 20 HR in 136 games.

Since then, Carlos has maintained approximately that level of production. He's also dealt with injury (he only appeared in 87 games in 2005 due to nagging knee problems) along the way. When I assess Guillen career, I see a late bloomer. However, as previously stated, injuries and being denied the opportunity at the big league level can be pointed to as the primary culprits. Baseball Prospecuts called him a future All Star after his age 22 season. It wasn't his fault that he didn't exceed 500 at bats until his age 28 season.

Verdict: Not Guilty

On the Juice?: Jason Giambi

College:

A's:


Yankees:
Verdict: Guilty

On the Juice?: Melvin Mora

Now for the second part of our ongoing series trying to determine players who might've used the juice to make it to the majors.


Given his bizarre career path Mora is a very good guy to look at and ask, did he use the juice? He was signed by the Houston Astros and began his minor league career as a 20 year old in 1992. As you can see by his career path, he toiled for a long time in the minors. He was the quintessential light hitting infielder in the minors. His minor league season high in home runs was 8.

He made it to AAA by late 1995 and there he pretty much stalled. After SIX years as an Astro minor leaguer he was granted free agent status and signed with the Taiwan Mercury in 1998. Not exactly a guy on the fast track to All Star status.

Then the Mets came calling. He came back from Taiwan and in 1999 made his major league debut, mostly as a defensive replacement, appearing in 66 games but only logging 31 at bats. In 2000 he played pretty regularly for the Mets, replacing the offensive black hole that was Rey Ordonez. He hit a surprising 6 HR in the 79 games he played for the Mets and was shipped off mid-season to the Orioles as part of a package for Mike Bordick. He played in 128 games all over the field for the Orioles in 2001 and hit 7 HR. Also, in July 2001, his wife gave birth to quintuplets, three girls and two boys.

Let's stop and take stock of Melvin Mora at the end of 2001. He was turning 30 in February of 2002. He'd bounced around the minors for 8 years before appearing in the majors. His family had just expanded from 2 to 7 people. His yearly HR totals as a professional had gone as follows: 0, 2, 8, 3, 8, 2, 3, 8, 8, 7. He'd made $270,000 in 2001 and was going to make $350,000 in 2002. Did he look at those babies and decide to dabble in PEDs, hoping to increase his production and therefore, his pay? Yeah, I think he probably did. Light hitting journeyman infielders don't suddenly becomes stars when they turn 30.

In 2002 Mora hit 19 HR with a paltry .233 average. Seems like a guy who'd just packed on some muscle and was swinging from his heels. It got him a raise to 1.75 mil though. 2003 was an injury shortened year, he only played in 96 games, but Mora still hit 15 HR. His batting average jumped up to .317. Seems like he adjusted to the newfound strength (Obviously, this is all conjecture).

It all came together in 2004. Mora was no longer used as a utility guy, settling in at third base. He hit .340 that season, along with 27 (!) HR. He followed that up with 27 more in 2005, 16 in 2006, and 12 so far this year.

As I said, this is all conjecture. Judging by his huge jumps up in batting average, he clearly figured something out and became a much better hitter. Maybe the birth of those kids focused him on maximizing him potential. He's now made 20 mill in his career so his family is set. But did part of that newfound focus include talking to his teammate Brady Anderson (a much suspected user, given his random 50 HR season) about a way to gain some strength? We can't know for sure, but the track record is pretty damning. Again, here's the career HR totals, including after his explosion: 0, 2, 8, 3, 8, 2, 3, 8, 8, 7, 19, 15, 27, 27, 16, 12 (so far). Something seems fishy to me, how about you?

Verdict: Probably Guilty

On the Juice?: Eric Gagne

This'll be the first of what may/may not become a running feature on this blog. I'll attempt to work through the known evidence and determine if a player is/has ever been on the juice. It's a topic that was suggested to me and one that I admit I am leery about. In general I've heard enough about steroids in baseball. I wish they'd never been part of the game, but I can't make up my mind how much or how little I should be outraged by them. If there were a similar substance that would enable me to potentially perform my job better (by some amount, who knows how much with 'roids?) and that that would increase the chances of me being paid millions of dollars to do the job, I would gladly do them. I am not so high-minded as to claim "I wouldn't use steroids if I was in their shoes." I would. Heck, when I was lifting weights 4 times a week, I used creatine and can admit that a passing thought of steroids crossed my mind. I had no incentive to bulk up, hence I never pursued it.

Anyway, I'll try to look at the evidence and present the case. There's no way to know the results, but it may be a fun exercise. Today, Eric Gagne.


The short version of the Eric Gagne story is that he was an up and down starting pitcher for the Dodgers, was converted to a relief pitcher, and promptly became, for the next 3 seasons at least, possibly the most dominant, unhittable reliever in history. After that, he lost almost 2 full seasons to a litany of injuries. This season he appears to be regaining (some of) his form.

At this point let me state that I DO NOT believe Gagne used steroids. While he did ratchet up his performance in an incredible manner quite suddenly I believe there are many reasons for this.

Gagne is from Quebec. One underrated aspect that often influences the development of young players is the weather (another example of this is Curtis Granderson). Quite simply, at a young age Gagne couldn't play baseball year round due to the cold weather in winter, whereas a player from Florida could. This often leads to players from colder climes being "late bloomers."

Another factor affecting his development was Tommy John surgery being performed on him in 1997, when he was only 21. He made a very decent 5 game debut at the end of 1999 as a 23 year old, very young for a pitcher from a cold weather climate who had already lost a year to TJ surgery.

Even then, he sported 4 pitches. Eventually, it was the 4 pitch repertoire that made him so dominant as a closer. Most closing pitchers are something of one trick ponies. The may have a few pitches, but only one "out" pitch (such as Mariano Rivera's cutter). When you've only got to get through a few hitters that's usually enough. Having 4 quality pitches made him an even tougher closer.

Over the 2000 and 2001 season Gagne was bounced back and forth between AAA and the majors, as well as between starting and the bullpen.

Here's what 3 progressive Baseball Prosectus' had to say about him:

"2000- Gagne is sporting a halo after his excellent September call-up capped a remarkable comeback from elbow surgery in 1997. He was dominant at San Antonio and goes into the spring fighting Carlos Perez for the #4 starter slot. He throws four pitches and will eventually be a middle-of-the-rotation starter.

2001- The Dodgers spent most of 2000 mishandling Eric Gagne, jerking him between L.A. and Albuquerque and never allowing him to get settled in a rotation. He didn't make it easier by throwing a ton of pitches on his way to averaging just over five innings per start.

2002 - He was jerked around considerably... and, given the circumstances, he didn't pitch too badly. All the requisite skills are there for Gagne to be a very good starting pitcher. It's just a matter of opportunity and patience."

Clearly, there was a belief that he had 4 good pitches, and was a good starting prospect. He did throw a ton of pitches in 2001 (1.64 WHIP) however he lowered that down to 1.25 in 2002. Despite the mishandling he was on his way to being a good starter by the start of 2002. Note that 2002 was the year he was moved to the 'pen, and that BP's remarks did not anticipate that move.

In 2002 he registered 52 saves. A few years removed from TJ surgery he was finally back to full arm strength (and presumably had been "stretched out" to make it through a major league season). Pitching only 1 inning, he was able to rear back and throw his fastball in the high 90's, which made his low 80's changeup that much harder to hit.

Yes his rise to fame was precipitous, but it often is for closers. A 25 year old Mariano Rivera has a 5.51 ERA and 1.51 WHIP as a sometimes starter in his only season starting in the majors. Clearly Gagne's skill set was more suited to the pen.

Gagne rattled off 3 unreal seasons In 2003 he was at his most unrealest, saving 55 and striking out 137 in 82 innings with a .69(!) WHIP while winning the Cy Young.

Another underrated aspect of pitching is "cascading effects" of an injury. In Gagne's case, he sprained his knee in the spring of 2005. The pain in his knee caused him to alter his mechanics, which ultimately led to elbow pain and elbow surgery to "release a nerve entrapped in scar tissue." Thus 2005 was pretty much a wasted year.

He was back in 2006 but that damned nerve still bothered him, leading to a second elbow surgery. Later on that season, it was discovered he had 2 herniated discs in his back, leading to season ending back surgery.

Now, a knee injury, and altered mechanics leading to an elbow injury in no way suggests 'roids. Neither does herniated discs in his back.

That pretty much brings us up to date. He signed with the Rangers this offseason, got a late start on the season due to the back surgery and has been almost his old dominant self this season. He did have a short DL stint for a sore hip, but that doesn't really seem like anything more than "just one of those things."

On the surface Gagne might fit the profile of a steroid user. Meteoric rise to stardom, followed by a rash of injuries. As we've seen though, his development path clearly shows that he had the stuff to be a good starting pitcher. How many above average starting pitchers would be dominant closers? Most never get the chance to find out, because starters are more valuable than closers. Gagne's a world class talent that had elbow problems long before he was a household name (TJ in 1997). He hurt his knee, and ended up hurting his arm trying to pitch through it.

Verdict: Not Guilty