Tuesday, July 24

Ron Washington is dangerous

Is he trying to make Eric Gagne's arm explode again? I mean, here's a guy who's had his share of elbow problems recently.

So, he puts Gagne in to close the game last night, where he throws 25 pitches while blowing the save.

The Rangers are playing a doubleheader today, and they have the lead in the 9th of the first game, so in comes Gagne to throw another 17 pitches in nailing this one down.

Now, the Rangers are leading the game in the 9th of the second game of the double header and he brings in Gagne again!!!! He throws 12 more pitches and nails down the save. So to recap, he warmed up the old arm 3 separate times in a 24 hour period and threw a combined 54 pitched.

Bringing a guy in three times in a 24 hour period to throw 54 pitches is irresponsible. When that pitcher had missed the vast majority of the previous two seasons due to repeated arm problems it's downright sadistic.

Seriously, does he WANT Gagne to get hurt?

Wednesday, July 18

Crazy Stats

- In the last four seasons ('03-'07), Johan Santana is 41-4 in the second half of the season.

- Carl Pohlad age 90(!), the owner of the Twins has a net worth of nearly 3 billion dollars, remember that when the Twins "can't afford" to resign Torii Hunter or Johan Santana. You'd think a guy this close to death's door would want his team to win one last time.

- Mike Hessman, career minor leaguer, already has 27 HR and 86 RBI in triple A this year.

- Tony Pena Jr. hasn't had an unintentional walk in TWO MONTHS!

That's pretty much it for now

How fantasy sports prepare you for life, Part 1

Fantasy sports are often scoffed at, but in reality they can teach you many important life lessons. In defense of fantasy sports in general, and American League keeper leagues in specific, here are some lessons you learn while playing fantasy sports. This will be part one of a possibly ongoing series on how fantasy sports prepare you for life.

How to do your research- Of course, we all learn how to study while in school. But there's something about scholastic study that seems so clinical. How many times have you wondered "How will this help me in the real world?" Well fantasy research is a different animal. One great thing about it is that there's no right answer beforehand. Doing research for fantasy sports can lead you down a hundred paths and result in thousands of different possibilities. Unlike school studies when you strive to get the right answer, there is no right answer in fantasy sports, or in many of the real world's problems. You can win a fantasy league with dominant pitching, or dominant offense. You can focus on speed and average or you can punt them. You can punt saves or load up on them. You can stream starters or have a core of studs. In fantasy sports you take disparate opinions and make your own choices.


How to negotiate- Granted, most of us don't do much real world negotiation. Maybe you haggle on car price, or at a yard sale, but most of don't haggle on price too often. Still, this is a skill one must develop in fantasy sports. You have to evaluate what you need, as well as what the other guy needs and come up with an offer. In keeper leagues especially, this can be a complex process. There are also a few different negotiation strategies. I typically start with an offer that clearly favors me (not quite a lowball, at least in my eyes) and try to haggle towards something more equitable if necessary. Others like to try to nail it in one offer. Some like 2 for 1 trades, some don't.

How to lose- This one is especially true in keeper leagues. In one season leagues, if you're out of it you can just stop checking a team. But in a keeper league, much like in life, you're not going to come out ahead all the time. In both, you can't always just stop what you were doing, you have to persevere. Evaluating what went wrong, what you lacked, what moves were mistakes, as well as formulating a plan to fix the problem is something that isn't taught in schools. If you do poorly on a test, the reason is obvious, you didn't understand the material. In fantasy baseball as in life, the reasons for failure are myriad and nuanced.

By the way, for those interested, the Hotlanta report is finally up, cleverly inserted into June's posts like it was always there...

Tuesday, July 17

SportsTube?

Here’s a website I wish someone would put together. Youtube meets ESPN Classic. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve wanted to see a great sports highlight from the past, and have been entirely unable to get it. It doesn’t make much sense. If I want to see a video of a dog skateboarding I can easily find it on youtube. If I want to see an Alanis Morrisette parody of My Humps, I can find that easily too. But if I want to see a video of George Brett’s reaction in the Pine Tar game, I’m hard pressed to find it.

This may seem like a trivial thing, but it really can be annoying. In this information age we expect to be able to get information, and when we cannot, it boggles the mind. It’s kind of like paying bills. If, for some reason, I CAN’T pay a bill online it annoys the hell out of me. It’s not a big hassle to throw something in an envelope and drop it in a mailbox, but by comparison, it’s galling.

I could site several more mundane examples of this. In a previous Bo Jackson post I referenced an article that recanted some of Bo’s more incredible feats. It spoke about him planting a foot several feet up in the wall. It also mentioned a particularly amazing play where he gunned down Harold Reynold’s at the plate. You’d think a play like this, which is seared into everyone who saw it’s memory, would be freely available to view, but it is not.

Other examples I have unsuccessfully gone in search of include Ichiro’s infamous gunning down of Terrence Long trying to take third (a game I watched live) and Devon White’s robbing of a home run during a playoff game. Hell, even “The Catch” is hard to find a video of.

I don’t think that this site needs to have every little Web Gem, although I don’t know how you draw the line. There just should be one place we can go to see all the great exploits of days past.

I care.

Sunday, July 15

On the Juice?: Eric Gagne

This'll be the first of what may/may not become a running feature on this blog. I'll attempt to work through the known evidence and determine if a player is/has ever been on the juice. It's a topic that was suggested to me and one that I admit I am leery about. In general I've heard enough about steroids in baseball. I wish they'd never been part of the game, but I can't make up my mind how much or how little I should be outraged by them. If there were a similar substance that would enable me to potentially perform my job better (by some amount, who knows how much with 'roids?) and that that would increase the chances of me being paid millions of dollars to do the job, I would gladly do them. I am not so high-minded as to claim "I wouldn't use steroids if I was in their shoes." I would. Heck, when I was lifting weights 4 times a week, I used creatine and can admit that a passing thought of steroids crossed my mind. I had no incentive to bulk up, hence I never pursued it.

Anyway, I'll try to look at the evidence and present the case. There's no way to know the results, but it may be a fun exercise. Today, Eric Gagne.


The short version of the Eric Gagne story is that he was an up and down starting pitcher for the Dodgers, was converted to a relief pitcher, and promptly became, for the next 3 seasons at least, possibly the most dominant, unhittable reliever in history. After that, he lost almost 2 full seasons to a litany of injuries. This season he appears to be regaining (some of) his form.

At this point let me state that I DO NOT believe Gagne used steroids. While he did ratchet up his performance in an incredible manner quite suddenly I believe there are many reasons for this.

Gagne is from Quebec. One underrated aspect that often influences the development of young players is the weather (another example of this is Curtis Granderson). Quite simply, at a young age Gagne couldn't play baseball year round due to the cold weather in winter, whereas a player from Florida could. This often leads to players from colder climes being "late bloomers."

Another factor affecting his development was Tommy John surgery being performed on him in 1997, when he was only 21. He made a very decent 5 game debut at the end of 1999 as a 23 year old, very young for a pitcher from a cold weather climate who had already lost a year to TJ surgery.

Even then, he sported 4 pitches. Eventually, it was the 4 pitch repertoire that made him so dominant as a closer. Most closing pitchers are something of one trick ponies. The may have a few pitches, but only one "out" pitch (such as Mariano Rivera's cutter). When you've only got to get through a few hitters that's usually enough. Having 4 quality pitches made him an even tougher closer.

Over the 2000 and 2001 season Gagne was bounced back and forth between AAA and the majors, as well as between starting and the bullpen.

Here's what 3 progressive Baseball Prosectus' had to say about him:

"2000- Gagne is sporting a halo after his excellent September call-up capped a remarkable comeback from elbow surgery in 1997. He was dominant at San Antonio and goes into the spring fighting Carlos Perez for the #4 starter slot. He throws four pitches and will eventually be a middle-of-the-rotation starter.

2001- The Dodgers spent most of 2000 mishandling Eric Gagne, jerking him between L.A. and Albuquerque and never allowing him to get settled in a rotation. He didn't make it easier by throwing a ton of pitches on his way to averaging just over five innings per start.

2002 - He was jerked around considerably... and, given the circumstances, he didn't pitch too badly. All the requisite skills are there for Gagne to be a very good starting pitcher. It's just a matter of opportunity and patience."

Clearly, there was a belief that he had 4 good pitches, and was a good starting prospect. He did throw a ton of pitches in 2001 (1.64 WHIP) however he lowered that down to 1.25 in 2002. Despite the mishandling he was on his way to being a good starter by the start of 2002. Note that 2002 was the year he was moved to the 'pen, and that BP's remarks did not anticipate that move.

In 2002 he registered 52 saves. A few years removed from TJ surgery he was finally back to full arm strength (and presumably had been "stretched out" to make it through a major league season). Pitching only 1 inning, he was able to rear back and throw his fastball in the high 90's, which made his low 80's changeup that much harder to hit.

Yes his rise to fame was precipitous, but it often is for closers. A 25 year old Mariano Rivera has a 5.51 ERA and 1.51 WHIP as a sometimes starter in his only season starting in the majors. Clearly Gagne's skill set was more suited to the pen.

Gagne rattled off 3 unreal seasons In 2003 he was at his most unrealest, saving 55 and striking out 137 in 82 innings with a .69(!) WHIP while winning the Cy Young.

Another underrated aspect of pitching is "cascading effects" of an injury. In Gagne's case, he sprained his knee in the spring of 2005. The pain in his knee caused him to alter his mechanics, which ultimately led to elbow pain and elbow surgery to "release a nerve entrapped in scar tissue." Thus 2005 was pretty much a wasted year.

He was back in 2006 but that damned nerve still bothered him, leading to a second elbow surgery. Later on that season, it was discovered he had 2 herniated discs in his back, leading to season ending back surgery.

Now, a knee injury, and altered mechanics leading to an elbow injury in no way suggests 'roids. Neither does herniated discs in his back.

That pretty much brings us up to date. He signed with the Rangers this offseason, got a late start on the season due to the back surgery and has been almost his old dominant self this season. He did have a short DL stint for a sore hip, but that doesn't really seem like anything more than "just one of those things."

On the surface Gagne might fit the profile of a steroid user. Meteoric rise to stardom, followed by a rash of injuries. As we've seen though, his development path clearly shows that he had the stuff to be a good starting pitcher. How many above average starting pitchers would be dominant closers? Most never get the chance to find out, because starters are more valuable than closers. Gagne's a world class talent that had elbow problems long before he was a household name (TJ in 1997). He hurt his knee, and ended up hurting his arm trying to pitch through it.

Verdict: Not Guilty

Monday, July 9

Delighting in the pain of others

I hate to be that guy who wishes ill on a person, but in some cases, I can't help it. Over the past few years, I think I've done a pretty decent job of selling a pitcher just before his value goes off the cliff. I traded Zito before the 2005 season, after his ERA had gone 174, 125, 169, 125, 105 in the previous seasons. Since then he had 2 decent years (both 116 ERA+) before heading to San Fran where he currently has an 88 ERA+. I feel like I got the best year out of him. Nevermind that I essentially ended up getting one (shaky) year of Francisco Cordero for him.

I traded Ervin Santana before this season, essentially for the right to Andrew Miller. I must admit Ervin's home/road splits scared me, and he's been even more splitrific this year, posting an awful 5-10 record at the break.

And then of course there was last season when I traded the former apple of my eye, Rich Harden. He was going to anchor my pitching staff for years to come. Problem is, the dude couldn't stay healthy, and I shipped him out for some young outfield help (Curtis Granderson) and a couple of mid round picks (the first of which I used this season to grab Ramon Hernandez). I went on to win the league, Granderson has improved by leaps and bounds this year, and Harden, well he can't stay on the field.

In a keeper league, sometimes you take a big gamble. One that could come back to haunt you for years to come. (Who can forget the fiasco of a trade that saw me trade Magglio Ordonez AND Joe Borowski this season for Jason Giambi?) As such, it's only natural to wish a certain amount of ill will on the guy you traded away. You don't want them to rectify all the reasons you had for trading them away. In Ervin's case, the home/road splits continue to dog him. In Harden's case, he's begun legal proceedings to change his name to Mark Prior.

I'm not a bad guy, I just hope Rich Harden's arm falls off.

On the Sauce


Your favorite communist spy/assassin and mine, Neifi Perez has been suspended 25 games for using amphetamines. This news may have eluded your notice if you don't make it a habit to keep up with the worst player in major league baseball. The crazy thing about his numbers this year, .172, 5 runs, 1 HR, 6 RBI is this: "Holy Shit Neifi Perez hit a home run?!? Who threw that pitch? Hugh "Losing Pitcher" Mulcahy?"

Which got me thinking, if a subpar pitcher like Hugh Mulcahy can have such an awesome nickname (albiet one you wouldn't want to self apply), why can't Neifi. I hereby dub thee, Neifi "Replacement Level" Perez.

In the real world, the loss of Perez gives Ryan Raburn, currently on the border between late blooming prospect and organizational soldier, some chance to show what he can do in the majors. I don't expect him to see much playing time, but it's worth noting that he was pretty much demolishing AAA...

Monday, July 2

OBI%

OBI% has just passed BABIP as my current statistical fascination. Basically, OBI% is what percentage of runners on base (ducks on the pond, if you will, and I hope you will) the batter knocks in. Generally, a rate above 20% puts you among the league leaders in OBI%.

While BABIP is informative because it can, to some extent tell you how "lucky" a hitter has been so far with hits falling into play, OBI% seems like it could tell you how "RBI lucky" a player had been so far that year. Of course, OBI% alone doesn't tell you that. Maybe Robby Cano has only driven in 12.6% of the ducks on the pond this year, but is that high or low? Unfortunately, BP doesn't list OBI% on PECOTA cards, so it takes season by season sorting to find out career rates. In Cano's case, his OBI last year was 15.99%. In 2005 it was 13.26% So yeah, he's down this year. Of course, he had what will probably be the luckiest season of his career last year with an obscene .363 BABIP. Of course he's gonna drive in a higher percentage of runners if he actually, you know, gets more hits.

I guess OBI% is just too linked to everything else. The better the OPS, the better the OBI%. So I guess OBI% doesn't really tell you anything different than BABIP.

Well that was some fun alphabet soup. Hope this didn't undermine your enjoyment of baseball, and the human factor therein.

Sunday, July 1

Ty goes to the runner?

I honestly don't know how to feel about Ty Cobb. As many/most of you know, I AM a Tigers fan. Ty Cobb is undoubtedly the greatest player in team history. He retired with 90 records. He has the highest HOF voting percentage in history (yes, better than the Babe). He STILL holds a bunch of records. He hit .366(!!!) for his career. And yet...

...he went into the stand to beat up a man with only 2 fingers. He was a notorious racist who once hit a black elevator operator for being "uppity."

How does one reconcile two totally polar opposite sides of the man? His on-field heroics have nothing to do with his reprehensible racism, and vice versa. Does one give him a pass because he was a rural Georgian born in the 1880's. I just don't know how to react to the man.

This I do know: He was one hell of a player. He also was known as a terrible racist, although perhaps that stance is somewhat overblown. How does one reconcile inner sanctum HOF credentials against reprehensible personal beliefs?

What if Babe Ruth had done the racist things that Ty did? How would we view him? What if Ty's actions are somewhat modernized? What if his cruel actions, rather than against blacks, were against gays or hispanics, how would be feel then? How much of a pass do we give a person for "nurture?"

I don't know. I wish I did. Ty Cobb is head and shoulders the greatest player in my favorite team's history. I want a man to idolize. He just has so many damned warts....

Miscellaneous

At some point, I'll go back and recap my weekend in Hotlanta (last weekend). But don't worry, I'll retroactively date it and pretend I wrote it the day I returned.

Big news today is Mike Hargrove resigning. An odd move, given that the Mariners have won 9 of 10, so you wonder what sinister reason is behind it. He says none, so maybe he just got burned out. I love baseball, but I often wonder if I could stand 6 straight months of going to ballpark every day. For the Mariners, I don't think Hargrove is any great loss, yeah he brought the Indians to the postseason, but those late 90's Indians teams were absolutely loaded. Look at the 1995 team (the one that lost to the Braves in the Series). I must admit, I didn't realize Jim Thome plied his trade at third for a few years. His HOF case just got a bit stronger in my mind. He also took the 1997 team to the Series, losing to the Marlins. I suppose you could say they got unlucky playing in the same league as the dominant late 90's Yankees, but you could also say a team that good should've won at least one Series. Anyway, I think that this might be a good thing for the M's, as Ichiro and Hargrove weren't exactly drinking buddies. Anything that makes Ichiro (the cornerstone of my team) more likely to stay in Seattle is a good thing. Unless of course I could use the compensation pick to acquire Cameron Maybin. Major man-crush on Cam.

Other news today (at least for me). I just noticed that Billy Butler is back up with the Royals. Later in his career he'll probably be only a DH, but from all I've read, his bat will carry that. Right now, unless he gets more of a chance to play (and does more with it than his first stint) he's not worth owning...

Last thing for now, the Tigers traded a Single A pitcher (Chris Cody) to the Brewers for Jose Capellan. Capellan lacked gruntle earlier this year (hence, he was disgruntled) but appears to be a decent bullpen arm (lead the Brewers in WXRL last year) acquired fairly cheaply, given market for bullpen help. I can remember my man Dan Messier (probably the only person who reads this blog) saying in Spring Training after Capellan's gruntleless stretch, that some AL team should trade for him. Anyway, as far as Capellan, I doubt he's anything other than a decent middle reliever with little chance to close (unless Todd Jones continues to do his Todd Jones impersonation). Even still, at some point soon other options to close will be back on the active roster, either Fernando Rodney, or everybody's choice, this guys:



Lastly, check out this article about how $15,000 may have radically changed baseball history. Maybe Bonds might've already been the HR king, having already passed the previous king, Babe Ruth?

Neifi Perez is a Communist



So I had this semi-decent idea for a Grade C sports movie last night. Actually, it came to me in a dream. This would make great TNT fodder, and could star Bruce Willis, Robert DeNiro, or maybe even Jean-Claude Van Damme.

Basically, the idea is that the Chinese government, tired of torturing Jack Bauer, has decided to grow spies in Latin America. They infiltrate baseball academies and turn a bunch of Latin players into spies, maybe even spies/assassins. It's a numbers game, and obviously most never reach the majors, but a few do.

Once in the majors, obviously this spy would have ample opportunity to travel the country collecting data, and no one would find it odd when they left the country, presumably to go back to their Latin American home, in the offseason.

Neifi Perez is my choice because he's on the Tigers and I hate his guts. While I admit he's handy with the glove, he's been the worst player in the majors every day since he actually reached the majors. Plus he's unusually thick for a utility infielder. Plus I could see him assassinating a world leader at a sporting event a la Reggie Jackson in Naked Gun...