Deconstructing the famous "bad trade"

I speak of course of the Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz trade of 1987. I suppose I could just link to an excellent article done by the Hardball Times, but what's the point of having a blog if I just put up a bunch of links.

Yes it's fun to snicker at the Tigers for trading John Smoltz, future hall of famer, for the immortal Doyle Alexander but was this really a bad deal for the Tigers? In hindsight, no doubt the Tigers would rather have Smoltz's hall of fame career than a few years of Alexander. However, this trade must be viewed through the prism of the 1987 pennant race.

Doyle Alexander made 11 starts for the Tigers in 1987. He went 9-0 with 3 shutouts! His first no decision he went 6 innings and gave up 4 runs in a game the Tigers eventually won. His other no decision he went 10 2/3 (!) innings and gave up 2 runs (1 earned). The Tigers also won this game.

The 1987 AL East pennant drive is legendary, as the Blue Jays collapsed in the last week and the Tigers took the division by 2 games. How might they have fared if they weren't 11-0 in games started by Alexander?

Meanwhile John Smoltz was a 20 year old 22nd round draft pick. His first season in A+ ball he'd compiled a 3.68 ERA while striking out 47 in 96 innings. He was midway through his second season when traded. At that time he had a 4-10 record in AA, to go along with a 5.68 ERA. Obviously, he was better than those numbers, but there was still much reason to doubt he'd ever be a major league talent.

Doyle Alexander did poorly in the playoffs in 1987, with a 10.00 ERA in two losses. However this doesn't change the fact that the Tigers probably never would've gotten there without him. He was an All Star in 1988 and retired after the 1989 season. Smoltz of course is still playing, and will have an Atlanta Braves cap on his Hall of Fame plaque.

Nevertheless, this was a win-win trade. The Tigers got the short term benefit of a playoff berth, while the Braves got a player who would help them down the road. I demand this trade stop being used as the definitive "bad trade." Haven't you people ever heard of Larry Andersen for Jeff Bagwell or Derek Lowe & Jason Varitek for Heathcliffe Slocumbe?