Now I'll admit, given that Carlos plies his trade as the shortstop for my favorite team, I don't want to come to the conclusion he's juicing. Nevertheless, let's delve into the past (powered, as always by The Baseball Cube, an invaluable site for minor league stats) and see what we find.
Despite enjoying the reputation these past few years as possibly the most underrated player in baseball, I think most people are farily well aware of Carlos' exploits the last few years with the Tigers. In his 4 seasons as a Tiger, he's been about a .320 hitter, while averaging about 20 HR a season. Obviously, that's damned good for a shortstop. As an aside, his days at shortstop appear to be numbered, as Carlos has been piling up the errors these last few years. He's likely to shift over to first base, perhaps as soon as next season. (After the Tigers sign ARod to play short this offseason, or at least I hope in my wildest dreams).
In looking at Guillen's career path, I think 2 words can be used to summarize why it took Guillen so long (until he was 28, and in his first season as a Tiger) to break out. Those two words: Injuries & Piniella. You could probably add a third word, ARod.
Guillen started his pro career in the Astros organization. He'd just reach AAA as a 21 year old in 1998 when he was traded to Seattle as part of a deal for Randy Johnson. He was oft injured in 1995 and 1996, so the injury issues had dogged him even from a young age.
So in 1998, Guillen was a 21 year old AAA shortstop who Baseball Prospectus would describe in their 1999 edition by saying "Should be an All Star some day." Obviously, despite the injuries, we were talking about a big time prospect. But here's where Sweet Lou and ARod started to mess up Carlos' game.
Don't know if you're aware of this, but ARod is a pretty good player. He was also blocking Carlos' path to the bigs (especially with Bret Boone providing well above average production at second base). So Carlos spent a lost season in the minors in 1999. In 2000, he became a part time third baseman, logging 288 at bats. He was also banged up part of the year, which helped to hold down his at bats. His production was decent (.257 average, 7 HR) but nothing to write home about. Part of the reason for his relatively sparse use was that Lou Piniella never really like Carlos, a fact mentioned by Baseball Prospectus in their 2002 edition.
2001 saw Carlos take over at short full time, 2 years after he probably should've thanks to ARod (who left for Texas in the offseason). His production that year certainly didn't portend greatness, .259 average, 5 HR in 140 games. But hold on. After the season it was revealed that he played the whole season with Tuberculosis. That'll sap your power.
2002 was a better season, but still not great (.261, 9 HR in 134 games) with an unpleasant DUI thrown into the mix. While he wasn't injured that season, obviously Lou wasn't too crazy about him, judging by the game total. 2003 saw more incremental progress, (.276, with 7 HR in 109 games). He also spent some time on the DL with an "inflamed pelvis."
Assessing Carlos' career after the 2003 season (age 27 season) we find an injury prone player who had his career path blocked for 2 seasons by one of the all time greats, and then for another 3 seasons by a manager who didn't particularly care for him (as well as more injuries, especially the tuberculosis). It should also be noted that Safeco Field in Seattle is not exactly known as a hitter park (granted, neither is Comerica in Detroit).
Prior to the 2004 season he was traded to Detroit for Ramon Santiago and Juan Gonzalez (not that one). This after he almost went to Cleveland for Omar Vizquel (Vizquel failed a physical, and the M's backed out of the deal).
So what happened in 2004? Guillen enjoyed his most healthy season, perhaps in his career (at least until he broke his leg in September). He easily set a career high in at bats, even though he missed the last month of the season. Perhaps he's a player who needs to be in their every day in order to succeed. He also hit 5th in the order for much of the season, the first time he saw a significant number of at bats in an RBI slot. Perhaps he changed his approach at the plate somewhat. He ended up hitting .318 with 20 HR in 136 games.
Since then, Carlos has maintained approximately that level of production. He's also dealt with injury (he only appeared in 87 games in 2005 due to nagging knee problems) along the way. When I assess Guillen career, I see a late bloomer. However, as previously stated, injuries and being denied the opportunity at the big league level can be pointed to as the primary culprits. Baseball Prospecuts called him a future All Star after his age 22 season. It wasn't his fault that he didn't exceed 500 at bats until his age 28 season.
Verdict: Not Guilty
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