Tuesday, July 24
Ron Washington is dangerous
So, he puts Gagne in to close the game last night, where he throws 25 pitches while blowing the save.
The Rangers are playing a doubleheader today, and they have the lead in the 9th of the first game, so in comes Gagne to throw another 17 pitches in nailing this one down.
Now, the Rangers are leading the game in the 9th of the second game of the double header and he brings in Gagne again!!!! He throws 12 more pitches and nails down the save. So to recap, he warmed up the old arm 3 separate times in a 24 hour period and threw a combined 54 pitched.
Bringing a guy in three times in a 24 hour period to throw 54 pitches is irresponsible. When that pitcher had missed the vast majority of the previous two seasons due to repeated arm problems it's downright sadistic.
Seriously, does he WANT Gagne to get hurt?
Wednesday, July 18
Crazy Stats
- Carl Pohlad age 90(!), the owner of the Twins has a net worth of nearly 3 billion dollars, remember that when the Twins "can't afford" to resign Torii Hunter or Johan Santana. You'd think a guy this close to death's door would want his team to win one last time.- Mike Hessman, career minor leaguer, already has 27 HR and 86 RBI in triple A this year.
- Tony Pena Jr. hasn't had an unintentional walk in TWO MONTHS!
That's pretty much it for now
How fantasy sports prepare you for life, Part 1
How to do your research- Of course, we all learn how to study while in school. But there's something about scholastic study that seems so clinical. How many times have you wondered "How will this help me in the real world?" Well fantasy research is a different animal. One great thing about it is that there's no right answer beforehand. Doing research for fantasy sports can lead you down a hundred paths and result in thousands of different possibilities. Unlike school studies when you strive to get the right answer, there is no right answer in fantasy sports, or in many of the real world's problems. You can win a fantasy league with dominant pitching, or dominant offense. You can focus on speed and average or you can punt them. You can punt saves or load up on them. You can stream starters or have a core of studs. In fantasy sports you take disparate opinions and make your own choices.
How to negotiate- Granted, most of us don't do much real world negotiation. Maybe you haggle on car price, or at a yard sale, but most of don't haggle on price too often. Still, this is a skill one must develop in fantasy sports. You have to evaluate what you need, as well as what the other guy needs and come up with an offer. In keeper leagues especially, this can be a complex process. There are also a few different negotiation strategies. I typically start with an offer that clearly favors me (not quite a lowball, at least in my eyes) and try to haggle towards something more equitable if necessary. Others like to try to nail it in one offer. Some like 2 for 1 trades, some don't.

How to lose- This one is especially true in keeper leagues. In one season leagues, if you're out of it you can just stop checking a team. But in a keeper league, much like in life, you're not going to come out ahead all the time. In both, you can't always just stop what you were doing, you have to persevere. Evaluating what went wrong, what you lacked, what moves were mistakes, as well as formulating a plan to fix the problem is something that isn't taught in schools. If you do poorly on a test, the reason is obvious, you didn't understand the material. In fantasy baseball as in life, the reasons for failure are myriad and nuanced.
By the way, for those interested, the Hotlanta report is finally up, cleverly inserted into June's posts like it was always there...
Tuesday, July 17
SportsTube?

I care.
Sunday, July 15
On the Juice?: Eric Gagne
Anyway, I'll try to look at the evidence and present the case. There's no way to know the results, but it may be a fun exercise. Today, Eric Gagne.

The short version of the Eric Gagne story is that he was an up and down starting pitcher for the Dodgers, was converted to a relief pitcher, and promptly became, for the next 3 seasons at least, possibly the most dominant, unhittable reliever in history. After that, he lost almost 2 full seasons to a litany of injuries. This season he appears to be regaining (some of) his form.
At this point let me state that I DO NOT believe Gagne used steroids. While he did ratchet up his performance in an incredible manner quite suddenly I believe there are many reasons for this.
Gagne is from Quebec. One underrated aspect that often influences the development of young players is the weather (another example of this is Curtis Granderson). Quite simply, at a young age Gagne couldn't play baseball year round due to the cold weather in winter, whereas a player from Florida could. This often leads to players from colder climes being "late bloomers."
Another factor affecting his development was Tommy John surgery being performed on him in 1997, when he was only 21. He made a very decent 5 game debut at the end of 1999 as a 23 year old, very young for a pitcher from a cold weather climate who had already lost a year to TJ surgery.
Even then, he sported 4 pitches. Eventually, it was the 4 pitch repertoire that made him so dominant as a closer. Most closing pitchers are something of one trick ponies. The may have a few pitches, but only one "out" pitch (such as Mariano Rivera's cutter). When you've only got to get through a few hitters that's usually enough. Having 4 quality pitches made him an even tougher closer.
Over the 2000 and 2001 season Gagne was bounced back and forth between AAA and the majors, as well as between starting and the bullpen.
Here's what 3 progressive Baseball Prosectus' had to say about him:
"2000- Gagne is sporting a halo after his excellent September call-up capped a remarkable comeback from elbow surgery in 1997. He was dominant at San Antonio and goes into the spring fighting Carlos Perez for the #4 starter slot. He throws four pitches and will eventually be a middle-of-the-rotation starter.
2001- The Dodgers spent most of 2000 mishandling Eric Gagne, jerking him between L.A. and Albuquerque and never allowing him to get settled in a rotation. He didn't make it easier by throwing a ton of pitches on his way to averaging just over five innings per start.
2002 - He was jerked around considerably... and, given the circumstances, he didn't pitch too badly. All the requisite skills are there for Gagne to be a very good starting pitcher. It's just a matter of opportunity and patience."
Clearly, there was a belief that he had 4 good pitches, and was a good starting prospect. He did throw a ton of pitches in 2001 (1.64 WHIP) however he lowered that down to 1.25 in 2002. Despite the mishandling he was on his way to being a good starter by the start of 2002. Note that 2002 was the year he was moved to the 'pen, and that BP's remarks did not anticipate that move.
In 2002 he registered 52 saves. A few years removed from TJ surgery he was finally back to full arm strength (and presumably had been "stretched out" to make it through a major league season). Pitching only 1 inning, he was able to rear back and throw his fastball in the high 90's, which made his low 80's changeup that much harder to hit.Yes his rise to fame was precipitous, but it often is for closers. A 25 year old Mariano Rivera has a 5.51 ERA and 1.51 WHIP as a sometimes starter in his only season starting in the majors. Clearly Gagne's skill set was more suited to the pen.
Gagne rattled off 3 unreal seasons In 2003 he was at his most unrealest, saving 55 and striking out 137 in 82 innings with a .69(!) WHIP while winning the Cy Young.
Another underrated aspect of pitching is "cascading effects" of an injury. In Gagne's case, he sprained his knee in the spring of 2005. The pain in his knee caused him to alter his mechanics, which ultimately led to elbow pain and elbow surgery to "release a nerve entrapped in scar tissue." Thus 2005 was pretty much a wasted year.
He was back in 2006 but that damned nerve still bothered him, leading to a second elbow surgery. Later on that season, it was discovered he had 2 herniated discs in his back, leading to season ending back surgery.
Now, a knee injury, and altered mechanics leading to an elbow injury in no way suggests 'roids. Neither does herniated discs in his back.
That pretty much brings us up to date. He signed with the Rangers this offseason, got a late start on the season due to the back surgery and has been almost his old dominant self this season. He did have a short DL stint for a sore hip, but that doesn't really seem like anything more than "just one of those things."
On the surface Gagne might fit the profile of a steroid user. Meteoric rise to stardom, followed by a rash of injuries. As we've seen though, his development path clearly shows that he had the stuff to be a good starting pitcher. How many above average starting pitchers would be dominant closers? Most never get the chance to find out, because starters are more valuable than closers. Gagne's a world class talent that had elbow problems long before he was a household name (TJ in 1997). He hurt his knee, and ended up hurting his arm trying to pitch through it.
Verdict: Not Guilty